*ElectionForecasts.com is not affiliated with any political party or campaign.
Overview
ElectionForecasts is a forecast aggregator. It's meant to be an easy way to get an understanding of the current state of an election, without having to rely on any single source's interpretation of the data. It's also useful for users who want to compare data between sites.
Categories
Election Forecasts: Models that aim to create probabilistic predictions of elections. They use polling data, economic indicators, historical trends, and other data to create their forecasts.
Prediction Markets: Platforms where users can bet on the outcomes of various events, including elections. They work similarly to stock markets, allowing users to buy and sell contracts based on their prediction of future events.
Bookmakers: Gambling websites based outside of the US where users can bet on the outcomes of various events (including elections) similarly to sports betting.
State Polling: The Electoral College count according to polling aggegrators. The values may be different between aggregators because they use different weighting techniques.
Data Collecting & Interpretation
Percents
The data for Betfair, BetOnline, Betsson, Bovada, Bwin, and Points Bet is collected from RealClearPolling.
Margins
A "landslide victory" is defined as an winning 70% (377 out of 538) of the electoral votes. More information about what constitutes a landslide can be found at ThoughtCo.
The data for the Kalshi, PolyMarket, PredictIt, and Smarkets (Harris, Trump) electoral vote margins are extrapolated by multiplying the mean electoral vote value for each bet by the ratio of total amount bet for that particular electoral vote value to total amount for all bets in the market.
For State Polling Margins only, if a pollster does not include data for a state/district, the winner is presumed using the Cook Electoral Ratings. If Cook updates their electoral ratings (as they did for North Carolina on 8/28/2024), those new presumptions will be retroactively applied to the historical data, so as to avoid the appearance of a large polling shift.
Maps
The score displayed at the bottom of the Electoral Maps page is the number of electoral votes each candidate would receive if the polling average matched the final result in every state.
If a site does not include data for a state/district, the winner is presumed using the Cook Electoral Ratings.